Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 99%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJan 6, 26, 8:12 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will either the Yukon Territory or Northwest Territories become an official province of Canada by EOY2055?
Manifold MarketsSeparatist referendum in any Canadian province in 2026?
FutuurWill the USA become a fascist dictatorship by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
PolymarketWill US annex any territory in 2026?
PolymarketEx-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.1%
- September 30-4.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-21.5pt47%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65M
- 24h Vol
- $116.9K
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the USA become a province of Argentina??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the USA become a province of Argentina? resolve?
- Will the USA become a province of Argentina? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.