Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 64%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleNov 13, 23, 3:32 AM UTCDec 31, 47, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if Hong Kong is officially a province of the PRC by December 31st 2046.
- This is a much tighter version of this market
- https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-hong-kong-be-an-sar-of-the-prc
Open markets
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- 24h Vol
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- Yes-0.2pt4%
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- 24h Vol
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- 27°C+8.5pt27.4%
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+8 more outcomes
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- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
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- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Hong Kong become a province of the PRC before 2047??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 64% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Hong Kong become a province of the PRC before 2047? resolve?
- Will Hong Kong become a province of the PRC before 2047? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2047.
- How is Will Hong Kong become a province of the PRC before 2047? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if Hong Kong is officially a province of the PRC by December 31st 2046.