Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.7%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleOct 15, 22, 12:03 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 4:01 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves as YES if before 2030 the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party loses control of one or more provinces or Special Administrative Regions (SARs, e.g. Hong Kong, Macau) that were under their control during October 15, 2022.
- The intention of this question is to assess whether any part of China (as it was constituted on October 15, 2022) will secede, rebel, or be conquered by a foreign country before 2023.
- For example, if the international consensus is that the People's Republic of China is in a state of civil war and rebel forces control a province or SAR, then this question will resolve as YES, even if the rebel leaders are also CCP members.
- Control over Taiwan is irrelevant for the purposes of this question because all parties agree that Taiwan is not under CCP control as of October 15, 2022.
