Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 8:02 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 94.3%
No 94.3%Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleDec 24, 23, 8:07 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a US-China war if Trump gets elected in 2024?
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KalshiRules
Resolves to yes if the US defeats China in a war before 2028.