Will the United Kingdom become more authoritarian in 2026?
Middle EastOne-OffRussia / UkraineChinaLatin America6moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 52.4%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleApr 11, 26, 4:52 PM UTCMar 31, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if the United Kingdom's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2027) compared to the last report.
- If the report is paywalled, I may resolve to a secondary source such as Wikipedia.
- If the United Kingdom's democracy score for 2026 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.
- @/cash/will-the-world-become-more-authorit-2R20yhg9dh
- 🇺🇸 @/cash/will-the-us-become-more-authoritari
- 🇺🇸 @/cash/will-the-united-states-become-more-QNC56OL95y
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- December 31-0.6pt47.5%
- October 31-1.0pt28.7%
- September 30-2.0pt13.1%
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- Naftali Bennett8.3%
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POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $113.6K
KALSHIWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Before Jan 1, 2029-2.0pt69%
- Before Jul 1, 2028-1.0pt67%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-1.0pt64%
+11 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the United Kingdom become more authoritarian in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 52% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the United Kingdom become more authoritarian in 2026? resolve?
- Will the United Kingdom become more authoritarian in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2027.
- How is Will the United Kingdom become more authoritarian in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if the United Kingdom's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2027) compared to the last report.