Will the President have federal police presence at polling places during the midterms?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionGeopolitics2026 US Midterms8d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 62.9%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJul 7, 26, 6:13 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
President Trump (or the sitting U. S. President) orders or installs military, DHS, ICE agents, FBI, secret service, federal agents or policing personnel, National Guard, a response force, or any police or military presence at any polling places in November midterm elections.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, during the November 2026 U.S. midterm elections (including early voting periods and Election Day on November 3, 2026), the sitting U.S. President or the federal executive branch orders or installs a military, DHS, ICE, FBI, Secret Service, CBP, National Guard, or other federal law enforcement or policing presence at or immediately outside any active polling place or official ballot drop-box location.
- To resolve YES, the following must occur:
- There must be a documented executive order, presidential directive, or confirmed deployment of these federal forces or agents at a polling place or drop-box site.
- The presence must consist of federal personnel, federalized National Guard, or state National Guard deployed under federal direction (Title 10 status).