Will the Israeli elections result in government formation?
PoliticsOne-OffChessElectionMiddle EastSports7mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 57%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jul 18, 26, 10:35 PM UTCMay 31, 27, 10:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves to YES if, following the Israeli legislative election scheduled for October 27, 2026, a new government successfully receives a vote of confidence in the Knesset (requiring at least 61 votes) and is sworn in.
- The market resolves to NO if the Knesset is dissolved and new snap elections are officially triggered without a government being successfully formed, or if no new government has won a vote of confidence and been sworn in by June 1, 2027.
- If the October 27, 2026 election is postponed, the resolution timeline will be extended accordingly.
- If the election is canceled or does not occur by June 1, 2027, the market will resolve N/A (this is highly unlikely).
- Current polling shows a highly fragmented electorate, raising the possibility of a coalition deadlock: