Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 9:13 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 81.6%
Forecasters
90
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleNov 6, 24, 4:14 PM UTCFeb 3, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketWill Russia target Kyiv on?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if Russian ground troops enter at least one of Estonia, Lithuania or Latvia and the AP calls it an "invasion".