If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine8y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 53.6%
Forecasters
60
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMay 20, 24, 7:33 AM UTCJan 27, 35, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill pro-Russian armed groups take control of a government building in any Baltic city or town by November 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump add a 51st state to the US?
KalshiWill Minimax-H3 become unavailable on HuggingFace in any state in the US before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill North and South Korea engage in direct talks by which date?
PolymarketUS military draft authorized in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Criteria for Resolution:
- Official Engagement: The US army must officially engage military forces against Russia.
- This means that the United States must publicly acknowledge and confirm the engagement.
- Direct Combat: The engagement must involve direct combat operations between US and Russian military forces.
- This includes activities such as ground battles, air strikes, naval engagements, or other forms of direct military confrontation.
- Clarifications: