Will Russia launch a full scale military attack against Poland by the end of 2029?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88.5%
Forecasters
34
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJan 14, 24, 3:13 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRules
If Russia exerts kinetic military action in the territory of Poland by December 31st, 2029, then the resolution of this market will be “Yes”.
- Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and military vehicles deployment inside a territory.