Will Russia launch a full scale military attack against Poland by the end of 2029?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 87.9%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 14, 24, 3:13 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
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If Russia exerts kinetic military action in the territory of Poland by December 31st, 2029, then the resolution of this market will be “Yes”.
- Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and military vehicles deployment inside a territory.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Russia launch a full scale military attack against Poland by the end of 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Russia launch a full scale military attack against Poland by the end of 2029? resolve?
- Will Russia launch a full scale military attack against Poland by the end of 2029? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will Russia launch a full scale military attack against Poland by the end of 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If Russia exerts kinetic military action in the territory of Poland by December 31st, 2029, then the resolution of this market will be “Yes”.