Will Russia launch a military attack against Poland by the end of 2039?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine13y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 61.7%
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46
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 22 hours ago
StaleFeb 13, 24, 3:28 AM UTCJan 1, 40, 4:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Inspired by @XYZ_RGB's question, thank you making the example.
- Resolves YES if Russia exerts kinetic military action in the territory of Poland by December 31st, 2029. "Kinetic military action" excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources.
- It includes shooting projectiles, and deploying troops or military vehicles inside Poland.
- We will ignore accidents with stray missiles such as this one.
- Resolves NO in 2040-Jan if no kinetic military attack happens.