Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 71%
Forecasters
1,046
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleMay 24, 22, 1:01 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/chinese-invasion-of-taiwan/
- Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that this market's resolution will be determined by the linked Metaculus market.
- Resolution Source: This market will resolve as the Metaculus question Chinese Invasion of Taiwan resolves.
- Guidance on Specific Scenarios: For inquiries regarding specific scenarios, such as whether a 'massive, successful blockade' would count, the resolution criteria and any clarifications on the linked Metaculus market should be consulted, as this market will follow its determination.