Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029??

Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of October 27, 2026.

When does Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029? resolve?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.

How is Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question will be resolved as 'yes' if AP, Reuters, and AFP unanimously report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.

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POLYMARKET

US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 28+1.9pt99%
• October 31+1.0pt96%
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+17 more outcomes

Total Vol

$28.2M

24h Vol

$571.8K

POLYMARKET

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• October 27+0.6pt100%
• October 31+2.3pt97%
• November 1569%

+28 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

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• December 31-1.1pt35%
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POLYMARKET

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• December 31,71%
• November 30,+0.5pt69%
• October 31,+0.5pt65%

+15 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

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• No+1.0pt94.1%
• Yes-1.0pt5.9%

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$28.2M

24h Vol

$113.6K

POLYMARKET

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

• Yes90.1%
• No9.9%

Total Vol

$1.4M

24h Vol

$98.1K

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