Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029??

Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of October 29, 2026.

When does Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029? resolve?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.

How is Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question will be resolved as 'yes' if AP, Reuters, and AFP unanimously report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

POLYMARKET

US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 28-1.1pt98%
• October 31-6.0pt90%
• November 285%

+19 more outcomes

Total Vol

$29.5M

24h Vol

$1M

POLYMARKET

US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?

• March 31-2.5pt59%
• December 31-0.4pt39%
• November 30-3.0pt26%

+22 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 27+0.1pt100%
• October 2999%
• October 3096%

+39 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

• No-1.0pt93.1%
• Yes+1.0pt6.9%

Total Vol

$28.6M

24h Vol

$381.9K

POLYMARKET

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

• No-1.0pt80.2%
• Yes+1.0pt19.8%

Total Vol

$75.9M

24h Vol

$205.6K

POLYMARKET

NATO x Russia military clash by which date?

• December 31+1.5pt17%
• November 30+1.0pt8%
• November 15+0.1pt5%

+5 more outcomes

• US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
• US-Iran nuclear deal?
• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
• Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
• What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by which date?