Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 69.6%
Forecasters
49
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMar 3, 24, 3:58 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This question will be resolved as 'yes' if AP, Reuters, and AFP unanimously report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.
- If one or more of those agencies cease to exist, the reporting from the remaining agency(ies) will be considered sufficient.
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- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029? resolve?
- Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question will be resolved as 'yes' if AP, Reuters, and AFP unanimously report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.