Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2028?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMay 5, 25, 6:03 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsSomali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by which date?
PolymarketIran coup attempt by which date?
PolymarketRussia coup attempt in 2026?
PolymarketRules
The Suwałki Gap is a short strip of land that separates the Baltics from the rest of NATO, stretching from Kaliningrad to Belarus.
- [image]In the event of a conflict between NATO, Russia might attempt to close the Suwałki Gap to isolate the Baltics.
- Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2028?
- See this question but for other years:
- @/cash/will-russia-attempt-to-militarily-s
- @/cash/will-russia-attempt-to-militarily-s-UndsqIZNpO (this question)
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2028? resolve?
- Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Will Russia attempt to militarily seize the Suwałki Gap before the end of 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The Suwałki Gap is a short strip of land that separates the Baltics from the rest of NATO, stretching from Kaliningrad to Belarus.