Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?
One-OffGeopoliticsChina2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 66.7%
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35
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binary
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Updated 8 hours ago
StaleDec 10, 23, 3:42 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
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Taiwan possesses four island groups off the coast of mainland China: Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Wuqiu, and Penghu.
- [image]China might opt to seize one or more of these islands in the coming years, either to test American and Taiwanese resolve, as a bargaining chip, as salami tactics, or as part of an invasion or naval blockade.
- Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands before the end of 2028?
- Same question except:
- before end of 2024
- before end of 2025