Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?
One-OffGeopoliticsChina3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 63.7%
Forecasters
74
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingNov 17, 23, 6:56 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsPenghu County Magistrate Election Winner
PolymarketKinmen County Magistrate Election Winner
PolymarketSomali Pirates successfully seize a vessel by which date?
PolymarketRules
Taiwan possesses four island groups off the coast of mainland China: Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Wuqiu, and Penghu.
- [image]China might opt to seize one or more of these islands in the coming years, either to test American and Taiwanese resolve, as a bargaining chip, as salami tactics, or as part of an invasion or naval blockade.
- Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands before 2030?
- Same question except:
- before end of 2024
- before end of 2025
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.8%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21.2%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.8pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.7M
- 24h Vol
- $487.2K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt48.3%
- October 31-1.0pt29.2%
- September 30-3.0pt11.7%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.5pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $111.1K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- UNRWA+1.9pt9%
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- International Court of Justice+0.9pt6%
+17 more outcomes
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 64% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030? resolve?
- Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Taiwan possesses four island groups off the coast of mainland China: Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Wuqiu, and Penghu.