Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2027?
One-OffGeopoliticsChina1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 84.5%
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Updated 13 minutes ago
Dec 10, 23, 3:42 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
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Taiwan possesses four island groups off the coast of mainland China: Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Wuqiu, and Penghu.
- [image]China might opt to seize one or more of these islands in the coming years, either to test American and Taiwanese resolve, as a bargaining chip, as salami tactics, or as part of an invasion or naval blockade.
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- Same question except:
- before end of 2024
- before end of 2025