Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNot before 31 December 2030 80.3%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleDec 21, 25, 5:14 AM UTCDec 21, 30, 5:12 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
PolymarketPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense?
KalshiPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?
PolymarketPete Hegseth departure announced?
KalshiWill the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth?
KalshiWill Pete Hegseth be impeached?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves based on whether Pete Hegseth is convicted and imprisoned for any crime by December 31, 2030.
- The specific year of imprisonment determines which answer resolves yes.
- If Hegseth is imprisoned in multiple years, the market resolves to the earliest year.
- The market resolves to "the named outcome" if no imprisonment occurs by that date.
- Resolution will be determined by official court records and credible news reporting of a conviction and subsequent incarceration.