Will New Zealand's Online Safety Bill receive a first-reading vote before October 1?
PoliticsOne-OffRegulationSpaceTechGeopoliticsMiddle EastEuropeManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (99%)
Resolved: Sep 30, 2026, 8:27 PM
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Data as of Sep 30, 2026, 11:32 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes1%
No99%
Won
Lost
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if New Zealand's government-introduced Online Safety Bill banning under-16s from social media receives a first-reading vote in Parliament before October 1, 2026.
- Otherwise resolves NO.
- The vote's outcome does not matter.
- Debate without a recorded first-reading vote does not count.
- Sources: New Zealand Government and New Zealand Parliament.
- The market closes twelve hours before October 1 begins in New Zealand.