Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?
One-OffAIRegulationLatin AmericaRussia / UkraineChinaMiddle EastTrade PolicyUS Politics2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.4%
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38
Question type
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleJun 15, 26, 2:03 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 11:00 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
The United States Government has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States.
- See https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access.
- The basic question I have is "Is something like this going to happen again this year?" There are other already-existing restrictions in place though, so here are more detailed resolution criteria:
- This market resolves YES if, at some point between now and the start of the new year, the US government takes a qualifying action (defined below) against any AI models belonging to a US company.
- The model must be a different model from Fable 5 or Mythos 5.
- Otherwise it resolves NO.