Will Trump order mandatory pre-release federal review of AI models?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityBefore Jan 1, 2027 32%
Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$21
Liquidity
$1.4K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
9.0% / 14.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 23 minutes ago
Jun 4, 26, 8:00 PMSep 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Before Sep 1, 202614%
Compare venues· Before Jan 1, 2027
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Low | 32% | — | $21 | $1.4K | 23 minutes ago | |
 PolymarketMost active80% match · verified | Low | 12% | — | $550.1 | $2.3K | 3 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by which date?
6.4 ptsClosed
+6.4pt12%
-1.6pt0%
0%
36 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$408K
24h Vol$550.1
POLYMARKETRules
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action establishing or directing a mandatory federal review, evaluation, or approval process that at least one class of AI models must complete before public release before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary.
- Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included.
- Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify.
- The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.
- If Donald Trump has taken any executive action establishing or directing a mandatory federal review, evaluation, or approval process that at least one class of AI models must complete before public release before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$21Jul 813d of dataJul 27
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If Donald Trump has taken any executive action establishing or directing a mandatory federal review, evaluation, or approval process that at least one class of AI models must complete before public release before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary.
- Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included.
- Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify.
- The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.
- If Donald Trump has taken any executive action establishing or directing a mandatory federal review, evaluation, or approval process that at least one class of AI models must complete before public release before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.