Will an "export-control chip security" bill like the Chip Security Act become law in 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffRegulationTech2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 65%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleJul 24, 26, 8:58 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an "AI chip export licencing" bill like the AI OVERWATCH act become law in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill an "data center utility cost protection" bill like the Guaranteeing Rate Insulation Act become law in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China have extended its europium export-control pause beyond November 10, 2026, as of December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the SAVE Act become law?
KalshiWill the Clarity Act become law?
KalshiRules
This will resolve by the same criteria as Polymarket, judged independently by me: Which bills will become law in 2026?
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that would require location-verification security mechanisms on certain advanced chips before export is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Qualifying legislation includes the H.R. 3447 (119th) — “Chip Security Act.”
- [link preview]
