Will an "export-control chip security" bill like the Chip Security Act become law in 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffRegulationTech3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 65%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJul 24, 26, 8:58 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This will resolve by the same criteria as Polymarket, judged independently by me: Which bills will become law in 2026?
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that would require location-verification security mechanisms on certain advanced chips before export is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Qualifying legislation includes the H.R. 3447 (119th) — “Chip Security Act.”
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an "export-control chip security" bill like the Chip Security Act become law in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 65% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an "export-control chip security" bill like the Chip Security Act become law in 2026? resolve?
- Will an "export-control chip security" bill like the Chip Security Act become law in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will an "export-control chip security" bill like the Chip Security Act become law in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This will resolve by the same criteria as Polymarket, judged independently by me: Which bills will become law in 2026?