Current community forecast
Yes 58.3%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJun 22, 26, 4:25 AM UTCFeb 1, 31, 5:12 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next UK prime minister tenure? (After Keir Starmer)
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PolymarketWho will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?
KalshiAndy Burnham announces departure as Prime Minister?
KalshiRules
Resolves based on length of tenure according to wikipedia or in case not recorded there, significant publications of record or authoritative media.
- From being instilled by the crown to resignation to the crown.
- Market closure date will be adjusted to ensure stays open in normal circumstances to successor submitting resignation to crown.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Keir Starmer's successor have a longer tenure as prime minister than Keir??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 58% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Keir Starmer's successor have a longer tenure as prime minister than Keir? resolve?
- Will Keir Starmer's successor have a longer tenure as prime minister than Keir? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2031.
- How is Will Keir Starmer's successor have a longer tenure as prime minister than Keir? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves based on length of tenure according to wikipedia or in case not recorded there, significant publications of record or authoritative media.