Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast> 1 month 99%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
27
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 13, 26, 11:42 PM UTCSep 13, 30, 11:42 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves based on the duration of the next UK Prime Minister's continuous tenure after Keir Starmer, starting from the date they are officially sworn into office.
- The duration will be measured by the time elapsed between their appointment and the date they officially leave office (the day their successor is appointed or they formally resign/are removed).
- Resolution will be determined using the official records from gov.uk and major credible news outlets such as the BBC or Reuters.
- Each answer option corresponds to the PM remaining in office for a duration strictly greater than the specified time.
- If multiple options are met (e.g., if a PM stays for 2 years, the "> 1 month," "> 6 months," and "> 1 year" options will all resolve YES), this market allows for independent resolution of each answer.
