Current community forecast
No 98.9%
Forecasters
65
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleFeb 15, 24, 9:06 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2030?
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PolymarketRules
Resolves No if any of the following actions occur:
- Keir Starmer fails to form a parliamentary majority in the 2024 election as seen on Wikipedia (2019 equivalent: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election)
- Keir Starmer resigns or is deposed by a vote of no confidence before the next General Election is scheduled to be held (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election).
- Update 2025-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If a general election is held before 2024 and Keir Starmer maintains his parliamentary majority, the question will resolve to a yes.
- If he loses his parliamentary majority in an early election, the question will resolve to a no.