Current community forecast
No 97.3%
Forecasters
93
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJan 6, 25, 4:28 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many seats will the UK Labour Party win at the next general election?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer be reelected PM in 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer have a full term as Prime Minister?
Manifold MarketsNZ Election: Labour Party # of seats?
PolymarketHolborn and St Pancras by-election: Labour Party vote percent
KalshiNext leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if Wikipedia and/or Labour's official website list Keir Starmer as party leader on polling day of the next UK general election after July 2024.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election? resolve?
- Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if Wikipedia and/or Labour's official website list Keir Starmer as party leader on polling day of the next UK general election after July 2024.