Current community forecast
No 97%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleMar 17, 26, 5:31 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer have a full term as Prime Minister?
Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate?
PolymarketNext leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
PolymarketNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held no later than 15 August 2029.
- This market resolves YES if Keir Starmer is reelected as Prime Minister following the 2029 general election.
- The 2024 general election resulted in a landslide victory for the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer, but with the smallest share of the electoral vote of any majority government since record-keeping of the popular vote began in 1830.
- The Conservative Party under Rishi Sunak lost 251 seats and suffered their worst ever defeat, ending their 14-year tenure as the primary governing party.
- Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, came third in the share of the vote in the 2024 election and had MPs elected to the Commons for the first time.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Keir Starmer be reelected PM in 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Keir Starmer be reelected PM in 2029? resolve?
- Will Keir Starmer be reelected PM in 2029? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will Keir Starmer be reelected PM in 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria