Current community forecast
No 97%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleMar 17, 26, 5:31 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?
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Manifold MarketsWill Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2029?
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held no later than 15 August 2029.
- This market resolves YES if Keir Starmer is reelected as Prime Minister following the 2029 general election.
- The 2024 general election resulted in a landslide victory for the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer, but with the smallest share of the electoral vote of any majority government since record-keeping of the popular vote began in 1830.
- The Conservative Party under Rishi Sunak lost 251 seats and suffered their worst ever defeat, ending their 14-year tenure as the primary governing party.
- Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, came third in the share of the vote in the 2024 election and had MPs elected to the Commons for the first time.
