Will JD Vance take over the presidency from Donald Trump before the 2028 election?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 84.1%
Forecasters
166
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleNov 6, 24, 8:01 PM UTCNov 15, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance be elected President of the United States in 2028?
FutuurWill JD Vance win the Republican Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExWill JD Vance win the US Presidential Election in 2028?
ForecastExRules
Resolves YES if Trump resigns/dies/etc. so that JD Vance officially takes over the presidential office before the 2028 election.
- (It is not sufficient for Vance to be acting president)
- Otherwise resolves NO.
- I won't bet on this market.
Open markets
Politics
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will JD Vance take over the presidency from Donald Trump before the 2028 election??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will JD Vance take over the presidency from Donald Trump before the 2028 election? resolve?
- Will JD Vance take over the presidency from Donald Trump before the 2028 election? is scheduled to resolve on November 15, 2028.
- How is Will JD Vance take over the presidency from Donald Trump before the 2028 election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if Trump resigns/dies/etc. so that JD Vance officially takes over the presidential office before the 2028 election.