Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 88%
Forecasters
74
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJul 11, 24, 5:11 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Donald Trump wins the election will he pardon at least one family or staff member before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump give himself the Medal of Honor while in office?
Manifold MarketsWill the next POTUS be involved in a sex scandal while in office?
Manifold MarketsDonald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)
KalshiWill Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking?
KalshiWill Donald Trump attend UFC 331?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Donald Trump wins the election, will he die while in office??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If Donald Trump wins the election, will he die while in office? resolve?
- If Donald Trump wins the election, will he die while in office? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.