Will Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking?
1.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 80%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$165.7
Liquidity
$339.7
Low liquidityBid / Ask
19.0% / 22.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jul 21, 26, 6:17 PM UTCNov 11, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
If the U.S. Postal Service blocks at least 10,000 distinct mail-in or absentee ballots for the November 3, 2026 federal general election pursuant to Executive Order 14399 or a materially equivalent amendment, replacement, or successor measure after Issuance and before Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressThe VergeBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- “Blocks” means that USPS refuses to accept, returns, holds, or materially delays ballot mail because of voter-list, barcode, certification, portal-submission, or similar election-specific requirements imposed pursuant to the covered measure.
- The threshold may be aggregated across incidents, but each ballot counts only once; warnings, promptly corrected interruptions, and ordinary postal problems unrelated to the covered measure do not qualify.
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking??
- Kalshi prices No at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking? resolve?
- Will Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking? is scheduled to resolve on November 11, 2026.
- How is Will Trump’s election order lead to large-scale ballot blocking? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the U.S. Postal Service blocks at least 10,000 distinct mail-in or absentee ballots for the November 3, 2026 federal general election pursuant to Executive Order 14399 or a materially equivalent amendment, replacement, or successor measure after Issuance and before Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.