What are the current odds for Will the next president die while in office??

Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of October 29, 2026.

When does Will the next president die while in office? resolve?

Will the next president die while in office? is scheduled to resolve on February 2, 2029.

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 85%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Stale

Aug 2, 23, 5:44 AM UTCFeb 2, 29, 7:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

For the purpose of this market "next president" is the president elected in 2024 (and thus could be President Biden).

Market is not impacted if Biden dies before starting his second term - the relevant president would be the person who starts that term.
Resolves to no if the next president resigns or is removed, even if they then die before their term would have ended.