Will J.D. Vance publicly criticize the decision to attack Iran before 2029?
PoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastGeopoliticsBasketballSportsUS Politics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 51.7%
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24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Mar 5, 26, 4:43 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- The US and Israel launched a coordinated joint attack on Iran on February 28, 2026, codenamed Operation Epic Fury by the US Department of Defense, targeting key Iranian officials, military commanders and facilities.
- This market resolves YES if J.D. Vance makes a public statement criticizing this decision before January 1, 2029.
- Public statements include interviews, speeches, op-eds, social media posts, or other publicly available remarks.
- The criticism must be directed at the decision to attack Iran itself, not merely at the execution or consequences of the operation.
- Resolution will be determined by reviewing public records, news archives, and official statements from Vance.
