Will Donald Trump Win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2028?
PoliticsOne-OffElectionGeopoliticsMiddle EastRussia / UkraineSportsSoccerUS Politics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.6%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Oct 12, 26, 5:13 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if the Norwegian Nobel Committee names Donald J. Trump as a laureate of the 2028 Nobel Peace Prize, either alone or shared with other individuals or organizations.
- It resolves NO if the 2028 prize goes to anyone else, or if the committee declines to award a Peace Prize for 2028.
- Resolution details:
- “2028 Nobel Peace Prize” means the prize the committee designates as the 2028 award, normally announced in October 2028 and presented December 10, 2028.
- If the announcement is delayed, the market waits for it.
- Only an official award from the Norwegian Nobel Committee counts.
