Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo peace, no Nobel 80%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
52
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleOct 11, 25, 5:11 PM UTCJan 3, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Peace before 2027.
- There doesn't have to be an explicit causal relationship, just whether the two things happen.
- This is a derivative market; it will resolve exactly according to these underlying markets:
- [markets]Previously:
- @/EvanDaniel/will-trump-win-the-2025-nobel-peace