Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 61.2%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 23 minutes ago
Jun 11, 26, 5:41 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market resolves to YES if Israel holds a nationwide legislative election to elect members of the Knesset (parliament) on any date from January 1, 2027, through December 31, 2027, inclusive.
- Israel's next legislative election is scheduled to be held by October 27, 2026.
- However, Israel's political landscape is highly volatile, frequently characterized by early coalition dissolutions and snap elections.
- For this market to resolve YES, the scheduled 2026 election would need to be delayed into 2027, or a newly formed government would need to collapse shortly after taking power, triggering a subsequent election in 2027.
- If elections occur in 2026 as scheduled and no further Knesset election is held in 2027, this market will resolve NO.