Will Flavio Bolsonaro's Polymarket odds to win Brazil's election be above 65% at 8:00 am ET, October 5?
PoliticsDailyElectionLatin America7hManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 99%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Oct 4, 26, 7:59 PM UTCOct 5, 26, 12:45 PM UTC
Trends
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FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at exactly 8:00 AM ET on October 5, 2026, the implied probability (represented by the "YES" contract price) on the Polymarket contract Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? is strictly greater than 65% (equivalent to a contract price of 65.1¢ or higher, or a displayed probability strictly greater than 65.0%).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Data Source: The primary source of truth is the transaction history or price chart on the official Polymarket page.
- The price at 8:00 AM ET will be determined by the last traded price of the "YES" contract at or immediately prior to 8:00 AM ET on October 5, 2026.
- Fallback: If Polymarket is inaccessible or the contract is paused/removed at the resolution time, historical data from third-party tracking site Kalshi will be used to establish the price at the specified time.
