FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
No 91%
No 91%Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$1.1K
Low liquidityTraders
9
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Jair Bolsonaro leave prison by the end of January 2027?
FutuurWill Jair Bolsonaro be pardoned?
KalshiHow much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?
Manifold MarketsJair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?
PolymarketJair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027?
PolymarketOn 12 October 2027, will Jair Bolsonaro be out of prison or other state custody?
Manifold MarketsRules
This event predicts whether any son of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro (Carlos, Eduardo, Flávio, or Renan Bolsonaro) will be arrested at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- For this market, an “arrest” means physical detention by law enforcement authorities with the intent to hold the person in custody.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official confirmation from competent law enforcement or judicial authorities (e.g., official statements or court/custody records).
- If any of the individuals listed above is arrested (as defined) during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- An arrest will count for "Yes" even if it is brief or followed by release on bail.