Jair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027?
5.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffElectionLatin AmericaCrime & Justice5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 83.2%+5.0pt
Yes 83.2%+5.0ptMarket quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$306.4
Liquidity
$12K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
81.0% / 86.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Oct 6, 26, 4:09 PM UTCApr 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jair Messias Bolsonaro receives a pardon (indulto or graça), commutation, or reprieve granted by the President of Brazil between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying grant of clemency means an act signed by the President of Brazil, or by whoever is lawfully exercising the office, that pardons, commutes, reduces, or suspends the execution of a sentence that had already been imposed on Jair Bolsonaro in a Brazilian criminal proceeding at the time the act was signed, and that has been published in the Diário Oficial da União between market creation and the deadline.
- Both signature and publication must occur within this period.
- A reprieve means a temporary suspension of the execution of an imposed sentence through presidential clemency.
- Full or partial relief from a custodial sentence or criminal fine will qualify; actual release from custody is not required.
