KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Mar 1, 2027 · —
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Book received (not venue quote time): —
Stored price
Before Mar 1, 2027 Stored bid–ask65%–67%Collected: Last trade: 66% · Trade time unknownPrices are percentages of payout, before fees; these stored observations are not executable quotes.
Before Mar 1, 2027 Stored bid–ask65%–67%Collected: Last trade: 66% · Trade time unknownPrices are percentages of payout, before fees; these stored observations are not executable quotes.Market quality
54 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.6K
Open interest
$1K
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Before Mar 1, 2027Spread
—
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Oct 9, 26, 12:00 AM UTCMar 1, 27, 5:00 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Mar 1, 2027
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Book received (not venue quote time): —
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Jair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027?
PolymarketJair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?
PolymarketArrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026?
FutuurWill Jair Bolsonaro leave prison by the end of January 2027?
FutuurHow much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill Jair Bolsonaro ever be a candidate again for any Brazilian presidential election?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Jair Bolsonaro receives a pardon, clemency, or substantially equivalent official act of legal forgiveness from a competent authority before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the Presidency of the Republic of Brazilthe National Congress of Brazilthe Diário Oficial da União
- A pardon, commutation or amnesty granted by a competent Brazilian authority counts, including a decree or law that covers him without naming him, even if a court later suspends or annuls it. A court ruling that overturns or reduces his conviction or sentence, a law that only reduces penalties or changes sentence-progression rules for a class of convicts, and a change of custody such as house arrest do not count.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Mar 1, 2027
- If Jair Bolsonaro receives a pardon, clemency, or substantially equivalent official act of legal forgiveness from a competent authority before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 10, 2027
- If Jair Bolsonaro receives a pardon, clemency, or substantially equivalent official act of legal forgiveness from a competent authority before Jan 10, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.