How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?
PoliticsGeopolitics5yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast1+ days 100%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleSep 12, 25, 1:24 PM UTCDec 31, 31, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
On 2025-09-11, Brazil’s Supreme Court (First Panel) convicted Jair Bolsonaro in a landmark coup-plot case and set a sentence of 27 years and 3 months.
- The reported vote was 4–1, with lengthy opinions connecting the conviction to efforts to overturn the 2022 election. 🏛️
- Even with a headline sentence, custody status can shift during appeals and sentence execution in Brazil.
- Early phases may involve special accommodations, transfers, and moves among closed, semi-open, and open regimes.
- This market doesn’t adjudicate politics; it measures a single empirical variable: days spent sleeping under custodial control in a penal facility.
- Brazilian law may grant special cells or a State-Major room (“cela especial” / “sala de Estado-Maior”) to certain defendants.