Will Donald Trump be inaugurated to a THIRD term as the US President?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.8%
Forecasters
79
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleAug 21, 22, 10:24 AM UTCJan 31, 29, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
This market will resolve to YES if Donald J. Trump is sworn in to a third term as President Of The United States before February 1 2029.
- Sep 14, 9:26pm: Will Donald Trump be inaugurated to a third term as the US President? → Will Donald Trump be inaugurated to a THIRD term as the US President?
- Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Per the creator, the following conditions apply:
- Any sequence of events that leads to Donald Trump being officially sworn in as president for a third 4-year term will satisfy the market.
- Temporary delegation of presidential powers (e.g., due to illness or incapacitation) does not count.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Donald Trump be inaugurated to a THIRD term as the US President??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Donald Trump be inaugurated to a THIRD term as the US President? resolve?
- Will Donald Trump be inaugurated to a THIRD term as the US President? is scheduled to resolve on January 31, 2029.
- How is Will Donald Trump be inaugurated to a THIRD term as the US President? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to YES if Donald J. Trump is sworn in to a third term as President Of The United States before February 1 2029.