Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.9%
Forecasters
38
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleApr 1, 25, 6:20 PM UTCNov 30, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump say he is candidate for a third term as president during the year of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump be inaugurated to a THIRD term as the US President?
Manifold MarketsWhich case will have its central holding overturned before the scheduled end of Donald Trump's term as president?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump run for a third term?
KalshiDonald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)
KalshiKathy Hochul to finish her term as governor of New York?
FutuurRules
This market resolves yes if Donald John Trump is elected president of the united states in 2028
- Things that resolve yes: Courts rule that the non-consecutive argument is legit and Donald John Trump is elected for a third term.
- Vance legally changing his name to Donald John Trump and then resigning to give the office to Donald John Trump.
- Vance running with Trump as VP and then resigning right after.
- Democracy is overthrown and Donald John Trump elects Donald John Trump for another term in office.
- Any shenanigans in general that cause him to be hold office after his term ends (even if separated by a little break due to a Vance swearing in and resigning type beat)
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump win a third term as president in 2028? (shenanigans allowed)?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Trump win a third term as president in 2028? (shenanigans allowed) resolve?
- Will Trump win a third term as president in 2028? (shenanigans allowed) is scheduled to resolve on November 30, 2028.
- How is Will Trump win a third term as president in 2028? (shenanigans allowed) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves yes if Donald John Trump is elected president of the united states in 2028