Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:11 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 92.8%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Apr 1, 25, 6:20 PM UTCNov 30, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump say he is candidate for a third term as president during the year of 2028?
Manifold MarketsPoll says more than 50% of Republicans OK with Trump third term?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump be inaugurated to a THIRD term as the US President?
Manifold MarketsWhich case will have its central holding overturned before the scheduled end of Donald Trump's term as president?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump run for a third term?
KalshiKathy Hochul to finish her term as governor of New York?
FutuurRules
This market resolves yes if Donald John Trump is elected president of the united states in 2028
- Things that resolve yes: Courts rule that the non-consecutive argument is legit and Donald John Trump is elected for a third term.
- Vance legally changing his name to Donald John Trump and then resigning to give the office to Donald John Trump.
- Vance running with Trump as VP and then resigning right after.
- Democracy is overthrown and Donald John Trump elects Donald John Trump for another term in office.
- Any shenanigans in general that cause him to be hold office after his term ends (even if separated by a little break due to a Vance swearing in and resigning type beat)
