What are the current odds for Poll says more than 50% of Republicans OK with Trump third term??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 54.5% as of October 28, 2026.

Poll says more than 50% of Republicans OK with Trump third term?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 54.5%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 17 hours ago

Stale

Mar 20, 25, 7:16 PM UTCDec 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, ratified in 1951, limits presidents to two terms in office.

This amendment was passed following Franklin D. Roosevelt's unprecedented four terms as president.
Donald Trump served as the 45th President of the United States from 2017 to 2021, and is currently running for a second term in the 2024 election.
While recent polling shows that more than half of Americans believe Trump will attempt to serve a third term despite constitutional prohibitions, there is no specific polling data in recent sources that directly measures what percentage of Republicans would support a third Trump term.
Trump maintains extremely high approval ratings among Republicans (93% in recent Gallup polling), but this does not necessarily translate to support for a third term.
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