Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 80.3%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleOct 9, 26, 1:34 AM UTCJan 20, 29, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWill Trump or Vance mention the "light cone" in a public statement before the end of the second Trump administration?
Manifold MarketsPeak US National Debt Under Trump Administration
KalshiWhat will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if democracy in the United States is deemed to have survived the second Trump administration.
- It will resolve to NO if any of the following events occur prior to the end of the administration (scheduled for January 20, 2029):
- No Presidential Election: The United States fails to hold a nationwide presidential election during the year 2028.
- EIU Downgrade: In the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Democracy Index report covering the year 2028 (typically published in early 2029), the United States' classification is downgraded to a "Hybrid regime" or "Authoritarian regime" (overall score below 6.00).
- V-Dem Downgrade: In the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute’s annual Democracy Report covering the year 2028 (typically published in early 2029), the United States is classified as either an "Electoral autocracy" or "Closed autocracy".
