Second Trump administration holds at least one oil/gas sale for drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge?
One-OffUS PoliticsCommodities2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 91%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleJan 20, 25, 8:15 AM UTCJan 22, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Background The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) has been a focal point of energy policy debates.
- During Trump's first term, a January 2021 lease sale attracted minimal interest, with most bids coming from Alaska's state-owned development corporation rather than major oil companies.
- A subsequent lease sale in January 2025 received no bids at all, highlighting the economic and logistical challenges of Arctic drilling.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if the Trump administration holds at least one lease sale for oil and gas drilling rights in ANWR between January 20, 2025, and January 20, 2029.
- The sale must be officially announced and conducted by the Department of Interior, regardless of whether it receives any bids.
- The market will resolve NO if no such lease sale is held during this period.
