Will there be another covid-like pandemic during second Trump administration?
PoliticsOne-OffHealth & MedicineWeatherUS PoliticsElection2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.8%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleSep 27, 26, 7:56 AM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, during Donald Trump’s second presidential administration (defined as beginning on January 20, 2025, and ending when he leaves office or on January 20, 2029, whichever is earlier), there is an outbreak of a novel pathogen or a significantly mutated novel strain of an existing pathogen (excluding SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 variants already known prior to January 20, 2025, and seasonal influenza) that meets at least two (2) of the following four (4) conditions:
- Official WHO Characterization: The World Health Organization (WHO) explicitly characterizes or declares the outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication, report, or press briefing (see WHO Emergencies).
- A declaration of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone does not qualify unless the term "pandemic" is also explicitly used by the WHO.
- Global Mortality Threshold: The novel pathogen causes at least 1,000,000 estimated or confirmed deaths globally within any single continuous 365-day period during the administration, as reported by the WHO, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), or another consensus epidemiologic tracking authority.
- Severe Statewide Mandates in the US: The U.S. Federal Government declares a national public health emergency, and at least ten (10) U.S. states institute statewide "stay-at-home," "safer-at-home," or "shelter-in-place" executive orders restricting non-essential travel and business operations for at least 14 consecutive days.
