Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.'s vote total exceed Peltola's winning margin in Alaska's Senate race?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms5d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 60.6%
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8
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 15 minutes ago
Oct 31, 26, 5:24 AM UTCNov 6, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if, in the official certified results of the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate general election, candidate Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.'s total number of votes strictly exceeds the margin of victory by which Mary Peltola defeats incumbent Dan S. Sullivan.
- The margin of victory is defined as Peltola's total votes minus Dan S. Sullivan's total votes in the decisive round that determines the winner under Alaska's ranked-choice voting tabulation (or round 1 if won outright).
- This market resolves NO if:
- Mary Peltola wins the election, but her margin of victory over Dan S. Sullivan is greater than or equal to Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.'s round 1 vote total (or total votes received prior to elimination).
- Mary Peltola does not win the election (i.e., Dan S. Sullivan or another candidate wins, or Peltola withdraws/is disqualified), meaning there is no winning margin for her.