Will Mary Peltola withdraw from the Alaska senate race?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms4d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.3%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleOct 29, 26, 9:18 AM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Mary Peltola publicly announces the suspension, termination, or withdrawal of her candidacy from the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate election, or files an official notice of withdrawal with the Alaska Division of Elections, on or before the close of polls on Election Day, November 3, 2026.
- This market resolves to NO if Mary Peltola does not withdraw her candidacy by the specified deadline and remains an active candidate through Election Day.
- Notes and Edge Cases:
- Involuntary removal from the ballot or legal disqualification by a court or election authority without a formal concession or withdrawal by Peltola or her campaign will resolve to NO, unless Peltola concurrently announces that she is voluntarily stepping down from the race.
- Credible public statements from Peltola, her official campaign, or verified reporting by major news outlets (such as the Associated Press) will serve as sufficient confirmation of withdrawal.