Will the Fake Dan Sullivan Effect the Results of the Alaska Senate Election?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms1mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleOct 29, 26, 5:44 AM UTCDec 1, 26, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Impostor Dan Sullivan finish third in the Alaska Senate election?
Manifold MarketsWill Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Dan S. Sullivan win the Alaska general election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExSullivan flips Peltola for Alaska Senate by November 2?
PolymarketAlaska Senate election: Dan S. Sullivan vote percent (1st Round)
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market is binary and resolves based on whether the presence of candidate Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. demonstrably changes the winner of the 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate general election according to official tabulated results from the Alaska Division of Elections.
- Specifically, the market will resolve to YES if the following conditions is satisfied:
- Ranked-Choice / Margin Outcome: Incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan does not win the election, AND the total first-choice votes received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. exceed the final margin of victory between the winning candidate and Dan S. Sullivan
- If incumbent Senator Dan S. Sullivan wins re-election, or if Mary Peltola (or another challenger) wins by a margin greater than the total first-choice votes received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. without an election reversal via court order, the market will resolve to NO.
- Note: The market creator may modify or clarify the numerical threshold or specific counterfactual definition before election day.