Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 23, 2026, 11:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 13.4%
Forecasters
124
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 days ago
StaleMay 19, 23, 5:12 AMDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes13%
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.